Advised THURSDAY NIGHT 12th March

Racecourse: Cheltenham
Time: 14:10
Date: 13/03/2020
Horse: Adjali
Current Odds: 12/1 Paddy Power, Betfred, Betway & Betfair Sportsbook, all paying 6 places
Advised Stake & Bet Type: 0.5 Point Each Way
Selection Reasoning

A cracking contest and a race where we had the first and second home last year so no pressure! The ground is quite testing and you need a strong finisher to win at Cheltenham this week. In the end I have gone with Embitterd and Adjali who have competed at Grade 1 level ahead of up and coming handicappers Ciel De Niege and Thatsy. A horse dropping from graded to handicap level often does well in this race and I just feel the ground is not right for Aramon.

Adjali was beaten a neck by Quel Destin at Chepstow last season on proper soft ground off level weights. Adjali travelled the best but was just held at a stiff course in a Grade 1. Quel Destin finished runner up in a Grade 2 recently and is rated 156! The form is there for all to see and surely Adjali is well handicapped off a mark of 140. He finished behind Pentland Hills twice at Grade 1 level last season. Adjali has had a wind operation since running in November and arrives here fresh and well from the in form Seven Barrows stable. Daryl Jacob finished second on We Have A Dream last season so has some unfinished business in the County Hurdle. His confidence will be sky high following the Concertista demolition job in the mares novice hurdle earlier today.

Compare Odds at https://www.oddschecker.com/cheltenham-festival

Racecourse: Cheltenham
Time: 14:10
Date: 13/03/2020
Horse: Embittered
Current Odds: 25/1 Bet365 5 places & 1/4 place odds else 20/1 Unibet 5 places 1/5 places odds
Advised Stake & Bet Type: 0.5 Point Each Way
Selection Reasoning

Embittered has been highly tried at the top level both in bumpers and over hurdles. He finished 3l behind Envoi Allen in a Leopardstown bumper and 9.5l behind the same beast over hurdles at the Fairyhouse winter festival. He raced up front in that Fairyhouse Grade 1 and only got tired from the back of the last flight. Envoi Allen won the Ballymore while the runner up at Fairyhouse Abracadabras went oh so close in the Supreme hurdle on Tuesday making the form of that Fairyhouse race top class. All the more so as Champion Hurdle third Darver Star took third place in the above mentioned Fairyhouse Grade 1!

Embittered ran a bit below his best when third to Abracadabras at Grade 1 level over Christmas but bounced back with a much better run on his handicap debut in the Ladbrokes handicap hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival. The winner Thosedaysaregone ran creditably in the Coral Cup (3rd) not truly getting home. Embittered didn’t enjoy the clearest of runs up the long Leopardstown straight. The new course and long run to the final hurdle will suit and he can defy a hefty weight of 11-8 with the soft ground no problem.

Compare Odds at https://www.oddschecker.com/cheltenham-festival

 

Racecourse: Cheltenham
Time: 14:50
Date: 13/03/2020
Horse: Redford Road
Current Odds: 33/1 Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook 4 places else 28/1 generally, look for bookies paying 4 places
Advised Stake & Bet Type: 0.5 Point Each Way
Selection Reasoning

Redford Road brings similar form to this race as did 2017 winner Kilbricken Storm. Both won the Grade 2 trial race over course and distance in December. Redford Road won impresively from Champagne Well. Yes, the runner up might not have stayed the trip but it was still impressive that Redford Road was able to pull clear with the runner up approaching the final hurdle showing good speed. Jamie Bargy took a pull as they met the final hurdle on a poor stride losing alot of momentum. It just showed how much stamina Redford Road has that he picked up again readily to take the lead idling badly approaching the line winning with his ears pricked. Sam Twiston-Davies takes over and hopefully Redford Road can run a big race as Nigel Twiston-Davies runners have been quiet so far in this festival. We know from past results that this lung bursting staying three mile novice hurdle can make or break a young horse. Previous winners include 50/1 Minella Indo, 33/1 Kilbricken Storm, 16/1 Penhill & 33/1 Very Wood. The majority of past winners have had proven form over three miles.

Compare Odds at https://www.oddschecker.com/cheltenham-festival

 

 

Racecourse: Cheltenham
Time: 16:10
Date: 13/03/2020
Horse: Shantou Flyer
Current Odds: 8/1 Paddy Power 5 places else 15/2 Skybet, Coral, Ladbrokes, all paying 5 places
Advised Stake & Bet Type: 0.5 Point Each Way
Selection Reasoning

Shantou Flyer finished runner up to Hazel Hill last year and is back for more as the pair renew their rivalry. Mr David Maxwell is buying a lot of nice horses to ride and he is improving as a rider all the time which is a positive. The key might be the softer ground this year compared to last year as Shantou Flyer cannot have it soft enough. Shantou Flyer enjoys a great record around Cheltenham and can go one better tomorrow. He arrives here off the back of an impressive Hunters chase victory and should give us a big run for our money.

Compare Odds at https://www.oddschecker.com/cheltenham-festival

Racecourse: Cheltenham
Time: 16:50
Date: 13/03/2020
Horse: Capeland
Current Odds: 25/1 Paddy Power, Boylesports, Betvictor & Betfair SB, all paying 5 places.
Advised Stake & Bet Type: 1.0 Point Each Way
Selection Reasoning

Several novice chasers line up in this cavalry charge with the reduced field of 20 runners a help. However, I want to side with an experience chaser who jumps well and handles soft ground. Capeland is such a horse who won very impressively at Ascot in November having been disqualified when taken out at the final fence by stablemate Diego Du Charmil the race before. The handicapper hit our selection with a 10lb hike in the ratings following his facile Ascot win. Paul Nicholls has run him twice subsequently at Grade 2 and 1 level. Capeland has to carry top weight but is a big horse and could cause a surprise by landing this race ahead of stablemate Greaneteen the choice of Harry Cobden.

Compare Odds at https://www.oddschecker.com/cheltenham-festival

 

Racecourse: Cheltenham
Time: 17:30
Date: 13/03/2020
Horse: Assemble
Current Odds: 20/1 Skybet 6 places else 20/1 Bet365 paying 5 places.
Advised Stake & Bet Type: 0.5 Point Each Way
Selection Reasoning

I think the runners that ran in the Grade 3 Michael Purcell Memorial Novice Hurdle at Thurles hold the key to finding the winner of this race with Column Of Fire the only exception. The aforementioned race has been won by some very good horses such as Sub Lieutenant, Acapella Bourgeois, Blow By Blow, Hidden Cyclone & Lyreen Legend. It is a 2m5f race for future staying chasers and in this race you need to stay very well. The new course is a big galloping course with only two hurdle over the final 5 furlongs so the conditional jockeys tend to get racing plenty early enough. This year the first three home in the Michael Purcell renew rivalry with winner Five O’Clock worse off at the weigths to the tune of 6lbs with Assemble & Front View. Front View has been well backed and did catch the eye staying on well having met interference coming down the hill at Thurles between the final two hurdles. Assemble is closely matched yet the market has ignore his form allowing him run at 20/1 almost four times the price of Front View and double the price of Five O’Clock! It is clear where the value lies and Assemble has proven heavy ground form over 2m4f having won at Limerick last Christmas.

Compare Odds at https://www.oddschecker.com/cheltenham-festival

**Next Selections due Date & Time:

Friday Night 13th March ~20:00

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