Advised Saturday Morning 17th October

Racecourse: Ascot
Time: 13:20
Date: 17/10/2020
Horse: Sovereign
Current Odds: 12/1 Betfair SB else 11/1 William Hill, both paying 4 places.
Advised Stake & Bet Type: 0.5 Point Each Way
Selection Reasoning

Sovereign won at Galway on heavy ground so should have no problem with the ground at Ascot this afternoon. He failed to fire in the Irish St Leger when well beaten by Search For A Song. That run was too poor to be true as before that he ran well in the King George stakes here. Enable won the King George easily this summer however Sovereign put up a good run. Soft ground should be fine and crucially he arrives a relative fresh horse having his fourth run of the season. Stradivarius had been to France twice and beaten. The Arc run was less than a fortnight ago so he could be vulnerable backing up quickly.

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Racecourse: Ascot
Time: 13:55
Date: 17/10/2020
Horse: Sonaiyla
Current Odds: 14/1 Bet365, Betvictor & Boylesorts, all paying 4 places & BOG
Advised Stake & Bet Type: 0.5 Point Each Way
Selection Reasoning

I think Sonaiyla is great value representing Irish trainer Paddy Twomey. She won a handicap on soft/heavy ground at the backend of last season in Leopardstown when trained by Mick Halford. Sold in November to current owners Ennistown Stud, she has raced four times this season improving with every start. She won a listed race in Cork and then just held on over 7 furlongs at the Curragh in a premier handicap carrying 10-2 under a positive Billy Lee ride. A step into Group 3 open company saw her beaten a neck by Glen Shiel. That form was franked when Glen Shiel finished runner up to Dream of Dreams in the Sprint Cup at Haydock. Sonaiyla was dropped down to 5 furlongs on Irish Champions weekend and came home strongly to grab third place in a Group 1 won by Glass Slippers. That form was franked too with Glass Slippers losing out at Longchamp at Group 1 level to Wooded when drawn high. Sonaiyla will enjoy the return to six furlongs and should handle the ground fine as well as enjoying a 3lb weight allowance form the boys.

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Racecourse: Ascot
Time: 14:30
Date: 17/10/2020
Horse: Even So
Current Odds: 13/2 William Hill 4 places else 7/1 Bet365 3 places
Advised Stake & Bet Type: 0.5 Point Each Way
Selection Reasoning

Irish Oaks winner Even So has a good chance against the older fillies enjoying a 6lb weight for age allowance. She is the first Coolmore Stud mare to run for trainer Ger Lyons and Ger enjoyed watching her winning the Irish Oaks. The Curragh is a stiff 1m4f and she outstayed Cayenne Pepper that day. Cayenne Pepper franked the form by finished a good second to Tarnawa at Cork and then winning the Group 2 Blandford Stakes comfortably. Even So went to France for the Prix Vermeille but was no match for the Dermot Weld filly Tarnawa with Dame Malliot and Laburnum finishing in front of her and re-opposing her again today. Nevertheless, I believe Even So is the better filly and will love the ground and 1m4f trip. Colin Keane is back in the saddle and she is well drawn in stall 3.

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Racecourse: Ascot
Time: 15:05
Date: 17/10/2020
Horse: Century Dream
Current Odds: 20/1 Paddy Power & Bet365 paying 4 places & BOG
Advised Stake & Bet Type: 0.5 Point Each Way
Selection Reasoning

What a race and a cracking renewal of the Champions mile. Palace Pier looks to be the best three-year-old middle-distance horse having won at Ascot and Deauville on different grounds. He is five from five and is the most likely winner. However, horses can fail to fire so at a much bigger price I am backing Century Dream who is just preferred over The Revenant. Century Dream found the ground too quick at Leopardstown on Irish Champions Weekend. At Goodwood he won the Celebration mile easily beating Sir Busker on his preferred soft ground. That win was as good a run he has produced including when third to Roaring Lion in this race two years ago. Last year he didn’t have a great preparation for this race following a stint in Meydan and a forced absence of 203 days. All looks set fair for a big run under James Doyle for target trainers Simon & Ed Crisford.

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Racecourse: Ascot
Time: 15:40
Date: 17/10/2020
Horse: Skalleti
Current Odds: 11/1 Bet365 else 10/1 generally, use BOG bookies
Advised Stake & Bet Type: 0.5 Point Each Way
Selection Reasoning

An above average renewal with the Aidan O’Brien trained horses that were unable to race at Longchamp turning up here. Magical is a super mare and lowered the colours of Ghaiyyath on home soil in the Irish Champion Stakes. She is little value at 7/4 and while Lord North was tempting, I am backing the French runner Skalleti. This is his first shot at a Group 1 but he is well ready for it going on his two latest wins. He beat subsequent Arc De Triomphe winner Scotsass at Deauville over this trip on heavy ground. On that occasion he was settled out the back, picked up readily and held the renewed challenge of Scottass. Last time out he met trouble in running with a blocked run up the rail, losing momentum yet picked up again to win readily from Patrick Sarsfield. Soft ground is right up his alley and Pierre-Charles Boudot rides him well having rode his win over Scottass. He is drawn in stall 1 so will need some luck in running but if they go hard up front it will set it up nicely for this fast finisher.

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Racecourse: Ascot
Time: 16:15
Date: 17/10/2020
Horse: Bells Rock
Current Odds: 14/1 Skybet 6 places else 14/1 generally with bookies paying 5 places & BOG
Advised Stake & Bet Type: 0.5 Point Each Way
Selection Reasoning

Bells Rock has course form such as when sixth behind Dark Vision in the Royal Hunt Cup over course and distance. That was a good run considering he was drawn low and came up the middle whilst the first four home came up the stands rail. Ten days before Ascot he flew home to beat Ouzo a neck on his first run of the season. That form was franked last Saturday when Ouzo won a good mile handicap at York. Bells Rock has run in two major handicaps following Ascot. At Goodwood he was ridden patiently on his first try over 10 furlongs. He came home well running a nice race to place third after the winner Maydanny got first run on the front end.

A little break followed before Bells Rock returned three weeks ago in the Cambridgeshire. He caught the eye that day finishing off his race well having met some traffic in running. The drop back to a strongly run mile should suit with both trainer Andrew Balding and jockey Oisin Murphy enjoying stellar seasons. Soft Ground is an unknown but is worth accepting at the prices. Off 2lbs better terms with Tempus and little between them in the Cambridgeshire, it doesn’t make sense that Bells Rock is double the price of Tempus. Bells Rock is a good bet in first time pieces having performed consistently well all season yet not over raced having his fifth run of 2020.

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Racecourse: Ascot
Time: 16:15
Date: 17/10/2020
Horse: Orbaan
Current Odds: 14/1 Skybet 6 places else 14/1 generally with bookies paying 5 places & BOG
Advised Stake & Bet Type: 0.5 Point Each Way
Selection Reasoning

David O’Meara is a brilliant trainer at lining up a horse to win these valuable handicaps. Over the past five years, David trained runners have finished 12136 in this competitive handicap. We had his winner last year Escobar backed (18/1) and I believe Orbaan is a similar type. Orbaan was bought last October having been trained in France by Andre Fabre. He showed good form in France at pattern level without winning. It was easy to be impressed by Orbaan when he sluiced up at York over a mile on good to soft ground in July. Harry Bentley settled him out the back, he travelled so well that he came through all the runners on the bridle winning comfortably even if by only a length.

Orbaan has been running well without winning since and has dropped down a pound to 103, which is only 3lbs higher than the mark he won at York. Last time out he raced over course and distance when beaten 3l by Tempus. However, it was a small field and slowly run race which did not suit this hold up runner. Stable jockey Danny Tudhope is back in the plate and while he is drawn high in stall 20 it is most likely he will be dropped in out the back. The quicker they go up front the better as that could set this race up nicely for a “closer”. A solid each way chance available at a good price in a wide open and competitive handicap.

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Racecourse: Leopardstown
Time: 16:45
Date: 17/10/2020
Horse: Melburnian
Current Odds: 5/1 Paddy Power, Betfair SB & Skybet all 4 places else 11/2 Betvictor paying 3 places.
Advised Stake & Bet Type: 1 Point Each Way
Selection Reasoning

Tony Martin has a strong hand thanks to last years winner Melburnian and Buckman Tavern. Melburnian won this race well last season beating Halimi from a mark of 77. Halimi won the stayers race here on Irish Champions Weekend and is rated 7lbs higher than last year less his 3yo 6lb allowance. Melburnian on the other hand is just 4lbs higher and looks primed to win. He should have won a valuable handicap over this trip at the Listowel festival when fourth with Halimi just ahead in third place. Everything went wrong for Melburnian during that race with a faller on the bend luck not to bring him down and then he had his run blocked badly when coming to win his race a furlong from the finish. If none the worse for his Listowel experience he is a maximum bet to make it two in a row with the course and ground to suit.

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**Next Selections due Date & Time:

Sunday Morning 18th October ~11:00

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