The Derby was looking a “if he stays he wins job” for Dawn Approach up to last weekend. However, Magician a horse with the speed to win the Irish Guineas comfortably has emerged as a big threat to Dawn Approach. The noises from Coolmore are that he will fly over on the morning of the Derby to Epsom with the rest of team Coolmore.
The Derby is massive from a breeding perspective for Coolmore and you can be sure that winning the Derby is top of the wish list each year. Battle of Marengo is more stamina than speed which makes him vulnerable if Dawn Approach stays the trip well but Magician has both stamina and speed and is the safest bet at this point with a run of course! Coolmore can always say the race came too soon following the Irish Guineas if he is beaten but there is only one shot at a Derby each year and Magician will line up if in rude health. It adds some much needed spice to the race which was looking very uncompetitive from a betting market point of view. The German and French contenders I know very little about to be honest so maybe they have been totally underestimated. A horse that is due to take his chance and is available at a huge price is Galileo Rock. He finished a very close third to Sugar Boy at Sandown over 1m2f staying on powerfully near the end. The step up to a mile and a half is sure to suit and he is way overpriced at his current odds of 50/1! He finished in front of Libertarian that day who followed up by winning the Dante and is available at 12/1 for the Derby. There is no way granting connections of Libertarian valid excuses for his poor run at Sandown that he should be that much shorter than Galileo Rock?
Last Week, We launched a facebook page for Bet Alchemist which I hope you will find very useful over the coming Months. The plan is to post free tips that I think are value usually within a few hours of the race on Facebook. There are so many meetings over the summer especially with the evening meetings that I often only notice great betting opportunities when sitting down late in the evening to watch some racing. Check them out yourself and I will be very surprised if these free bets do not show a healthy profit by the end of the summer.
Oh by the way, I have brought onboard a top bloke in Martin Whelan to help me with the Bet Alchemist Facebook and Twitter pages. I am quite limited time wise so it is great to have some help from Martin. He is a Punter that loves a bet (Just back from Disney World curtsey of Bet Alchemist Profits) and will have the banter with you on Facebook and Twitter. He loves nothing more than winning money from the bookies and is not slow to vent his frustration when a horse lets him down!
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Eye Catchers for the Week ending 26th May
Magician – Trainer Aidan O’Brien – Jockey Joseph O’Brien
Nothing original here but it was hard not to be very impressed by how easily Magician picked up following a searching gallop to win the Irish Guineas at the Curragh. The Curragh Mile is recognised as a stiff mile and trading leather set a strong gallop turning the race into a stamina test. The plan almost worked but Magician travelled easily and picked up to win with plenty left in the tank. He has speed and stamina and hopefully will run in the English Derby where he has a big chance of usurping favourite Dawn Approach.
Just The Judge – Trainer Charlie Hills – Jockey Jamie Spencer
She made no mistake in the Irish Guineas travelling easily and winning with a little in hand. At Newmarket in the English version she hit the front too soon according to Jockey Jamie Spencer and he rode her more patiently here. She produced a nice turn of foot at the end and is unlucky not to be a dual guineas winner at this stage. I can see her being a force against her own age group for the remainder of this season as she looks to be a little ahead of the other milers with maybe Hot Snap the exception.
Just the two this week as I was out and about most of the weekend and did not get to watch much racing besides the Group races. Al Kazeem put Camelot in his place with a commanding win at the Curragh in a Group 1 over 1m2f. Camelot did not look the same horse as early last season but a bout of colic that nearly killed him late last year may have blunted this talented horse.
Best of luck,
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