Bet Alchemist Weekly Blog – 12th July 2015

Race Reports

Sixth Sense – 0.5 Point Each Way

Sixth Sense arrived at Newmarket off a big effort when 3rd in the Chesham Stakes at Royal Ascot. That Ascot run was over 7 furlongs and Sixth Sense looked a winner until fading close to the line having hit the front plenty early. The drop to 6 furlongs looked sure to suit at Newmarket but he was ridden with more patience and never picked up at the business end running flat. Two year olds are more susceptible to hard races than more mature types obviously so we can forgive Sixth Sense this below his best run. He remains of interest on fast ground over 6/7 furlongs. Well backed going off at 7/1 having been put up by pricewise that morning.

Hillstar – 0.5 Point Each Way

Hillstar arrived at Newmarket off the back of Royal Ascot following a similar race programme to 2014. He ran well and looked to have a proper chance entering the dip with 6 in a row but was unable to quicken as well as the first three home on the fast ground. Hillstar didn’t perform as well as in the 2014 renewal and that was the difference between winning and finishing a couple of lengths behind. Hillstar seems to pick up a group race most years and can win one on slower ground over the next few weeks. We were correct to take on the vulnerable favourite Mahsoob (up in class) but sided with the wrong horse as very few had Big Orange (25/1) marked as the winner!

Awesome Power – 1.0 Point Win

This was by far the most frustrating result of the day! Resonant whom we had backed at Royal Ascot was allowed a massive lead up front and was never in danger of been roped in over the final furlong. He’d been well on my radar the night before but at 7/1 was priced about right. If he had been available at 12/1 as per the SP then it would have been a different story. As it was 4/1 about the impressive Sandown winner Awesome Power looked big and he was very well backed into 5/2 jolly. Awesome Power ran no sort of race and William Haggis gave the following explanation:

“The Stewards considered the running of AWESOME POWER, ridden by Harry Bentley and trained by William Haggas, which finished unplaced. The Stewards noted the trainer’s explanation that despite having won on fast ground last time at Sandown he considered that AWESOME POWER would be better suited with having cut in the ground. The Veterinary Officer reported that a post-race examination of the colt failed to reveal any abnormalities”

Avenir Certain – 1.0 Point Win

James Doyle rode a fantastic tactical race on Amazing Maria to win. The pace was very modest up front as Arabian Queen was ridden like a reluctant leader! De Sousa wanted to dictate from the front but it resulted in a false pace and a bunch finish. James Doyle on Amazing Maria was settled out the back with Avenir Certain but realised the pace was slow and moved forward while all the other jockeys including Avenir Certain’s Soumillon sat and waited. In the end Avenir Certain picked up well but grab 3rd place but was unable to reel in Amazing Maria who got first run. The form of this race is rather suspect and Avenir Certain will do better of a much stronger pace.

Georgian Bay – 0.5 Point Each Way

Georgian Bay was advised at 16/1 and sent off at 6/1 have been heavily backed. Sure we got some value but of little use if they do not go and perform. On his 2014 running in the Bunbury Cup Georgian Bay was well in and capable of landing this Silver Bunbury Cup especially on more favoured quick ground. He raced well until “spitting the dummy out” at the business end finishing plum last! This horse is either gone at the game or else is going to win when everyone has given up on him. I am siding with the former and we shall not be backing him again!

Gabrials Kaka – 0.5 Point Each Way

He broke well from a good draw but was shuffled back as pace up front slowed handing the advantage to front runners. Gabrial’s Kaka finished well getting a bump from Musaddas but never picking up quick enough to get involved. I felt he was not overly hard ridden late in the race and remains of interest but needs a fast run race as not blessed with a turn of foot on ground that rode faster than expected. Gabrials Kaka finished sixth beaten just under 5 lengths. It was interesting that his price of 14/1 held up so well considering he was advised as a bet by Pricewise and a few other big name tipsters. He is very well handicapped off his new rating of 90 but that rather low rating will not see him make the final cut in the valuable mile handicap at Glorious Goodwood which he holds an entry in.

Barnet Fair – 0.5 Point Each Way

Barnet Fair had every chance of winning with most of field running up the centre as meadway set the pace. The winner Double Up quickened into a clear lead heading the middle group as the held up fast finishers all came from the stands rail runners. Barnet Fair didn’t quicken like he can running respectably but just missing out on a place back in 6th place. Barnet Fair has been dropped a pound to a new rating of 89 where a win is well within his range. Last year he won off 90 with a claimer riding at Glorious Goodwood and is on interest there if drawn well in a couple of weeks.

Meadway – 0.5 Point Each Way

Meadway broke quickly and led the field up the middle of the track. He came under pressure over a furlong out as Double Up took over going on to win. Meadway arrived here in top form off a career best run and win at Musselburgh on his first run of the season. He ran too freely in this race up front and was unable to last home. Under a more restrained ride and less stiff track he might be of interest again at a big price.

Jallota – 1.0 Point Each Way

Jallota ran a massive race and most unlucky not to bag a place in a blanket finish between 4 horses fighting it out for the 2nd, 3rd & 4th places. Jallota drifted away from the whip towards the centre of the track losing valuable ground which if running straight would have seen him finish ahead of the second One Word More whom he had beaten at York previously. Jallota is running at the top of his game but off a rating of 103 is slightly vulnerable to better handicapped rivals. He has had two hard races of late and that might tell if turned out again very soon. Rene Mathis surprised my winning here on good/firm ground as I have a tracker on him saying well handicapped but needs some cut!

Unforgiving Minute – 1.0 Point Each Way

The ground looked ideal for Unforgiving Minute who had improved significantly on the all weather last winter. He broke well but just didn’t seem to handle the track, surface or going! The trainer provided this explanation after the race “Clive Cox, the trainer of UNFORGIVING MINUTE, unplaced, reported that the colt was unsuited by today’s Good to Firm ground, which he considered was too fast for him.”

Ajman Bridge – 0.5 Point Each Way

Ajman Bridge ran well finishing 5th travelling nicely up the middle having to wait for gap possible too long as leaders shot clear off the front. He picked up well to get into 3rd place and then was not ridden out fully to hold that position as Mount Logan and Forgotten Hero! Forgotten Hero just passed Ajman Bridge on the line beating him for 4th place by a nose. Talking about a most frustrating ride and result! It’s very hard to understand how the stewards allowed Adam Kirby escape with no questioning let alone a ban.

Jack Dexter - 0.5 Point Each Way

Jack Dexter ran flat once again at Newmarket and it’s apparent now he does not like the course. Jack Dexter had run so well on his past two runs but this is the 2nd time he has flopped in the July Cup! He will bounce back for sure and is a horse to keep in mind for later in the season especially on softer ground. The second horse home Tropics proves the point that it is horses for some courses running a massive race to finish second two years running in a July Cup.

Betalchemist News

Super Saturday went wrong very wrong for us last weekend! A few horses just failed to place by very small margins like Jallota & Ajman Bridge which hurts the bottom line massively. Personally, the biggest frustration is that we are not been rewarded for beating the market with the majority of our selections at advised prices.

It’s reasonable to expect that this will correct itself over the long run and that in time we shall enjoy a higher than average strike rate to compensate for the current lower than average or expected strike rate. The upcoming Galway and Glorious Goodwood festivals will see a high volume of bets and hopefully a positive swing upwards into profits and a positive return for July.

Irish Oaks

As mentioned a few weeks ago this year’s crop of 3 year old middle distance fillies is well above average. The Irish Oaks will provide a real stamina test especially if the forecast heavy rain changes the going to contain the word soft come Saturday afternoon. The arrival of rain would make the market leaders vulnerable for sure as Curvy & Qualify are much better race horses on quick ground. It’s something worth keeping in mind if planning to back in the Irish Oaks before Saturday.

 

That’s all for now,

Nicky