Advised SATURday Morning 10th October

Racecourse: York
Time: 15:10
Date: 10/10/2020
Horse: Aplomb
Current Odds: 16/1 William Hill 7 places else 16/1 generally, use bookies paying 5 places, use BOG bookies
Advised Stake & Bet Type: 0.5 Point Each Way
Selection Reasoning

Aplomb has a decent chance in this cracking 22 runner sprint handicap. He got back to winning ways last time out at Ripon when a cosy winner over this trip on good to soft ground. The softer the better as he loves “dig” in the ground and is peaking at the right time for this valuable prize. I like that he is drawn low in stall 2 and has Paul Hanagan booked to ride. Last season he failed to fire in this race when a 3yo and rated 97. This time round he is a year older and stronger and gets to race off a mark of 93. He’s a quick horse as he showed earlier this season when fourth at Ascot over 5f coming home strongly from the back in a strong race won by Jawwaal. A strongly run six furlongs is his optimum trip and soft ground is ideal. Fingers crossed Aplomb is on a going day.

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Racecourse: York
Time: 15:10
Date: 10/10/2020
Horse: Roulston Scar
Current Odds: 10/1 Boylesports, Betvictor & 888sport, use BOG bookies
Advised Stake & Bet Type: 0.5 Point Each Way
Selection Reasoning

Roulston Scar is lumbered with a high weight of 9-9 but is an improver. He won on his first start in seven months two weeks ago beating a race fit Danzeno. That is good form with Danzeno placing third in this race last season when beaten by Gulliver. Roulston Scar should come on for his last run and most likely connections have had this valuable race in mind for a while. Drawn in stall 12 he can come up the middle with Adam Kirby an excellent jockey booking. Roulston Scar won on soft ground at Pontefract last season, so we know he handles soft ground. He is preferred to the Irish raider Laugh a Minute.

Compare Odds at https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing

Racecourse: Newmarket
Time: 15:35
Date: 10/10/2020
Horse: Great White Shark
Current Odds: 15/2 Bet365 6 places else 7/1 Boylesports paying 6 places, both BOG
Advised Stake & Bet Type: 0.5 Point Each Way
Selection Reasoning

Great White Shark won a valuable stayer’s handicap hurdle at the Galway Festival in great style this summer. She ran quite freely but jumped super and saw out the 2m7f trip on soft ground well. That bodes well for her getting this marathon flat trip of 2m2f with soft ground to suit. She does have good flat form such as when she gave amateur rider Jodie Townsend a big win in the qualified riders flat handicap (2m1f) at Galway in 2018. She ran well enough in that same amateur riders’ flat race at Galway this season off a 2lb higher mark of 88 when seventh. Just look at that Galway race won by Princess Zoe and you will see that Great White Shark was unlucky not to finish closer. She got pushed very wide rounding the bend into the straight losing lengths but powered home to be beaten just over two lengths. Willie Mullins sends over just the one horse for this valuable handicap which he has trained the winner of the past two years.  Great White Shark is rated 145 over hurdles so she looks very well handicapped off a flat mark of 86!

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Racecourse: Newmarket
Time: 15:35
Date: 10/10/2020
Horse: Lynwood Gold
Current Odds: 16/1 Betfair SB 6 places else 14/1 Paddy Power 7 places, use BOG bookies
Advised Stake & Bet Type: 0.5 Point Each Way
Selection Reasoning

Jessie Harrington is another dual-purpose trainer who looks to have a lively contender. A recent spin over hurdles at the Listowel Festival should have set her straight for this stamina test. Last March this gelding beat a good bumper and jump horse in Blackbow at Navan in a maiden hurdle. That race was over two miles on heavy ground so Lynwood Gold will stay this trip no problem. He caught the eye when third at the Curragh behind Daltons Highway in a two-mile flat race. That effort was backed up with a tidy win in a trial for the Ebor Handicap at the Curragh over a 1m6f trip. At the Galway festival he ran well to place third behind Princess Zoe on soft ground. I think the ground and trip are ideal for our selection. Shane Foley rides and with a nice low weight of 8-11 he looks to be on the right side of the handicapper.

Compare Odds at https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing

Racecourse: Chepstow
Time: 16:32
Date: 10/10/2020
Horse: The Bay Birch
Current Odds: 3/1 William Hill & Bet365
Advised Stake & Bet Type: 1.0 Point Win
Selection Reasoning

An excellent renewal and I am siding with last years winner The Bay Birch. This mare has had a pipe opener almost three weeks ago when third at Warwick. Trainer Matt Sheppard is looking to take advantage of race fitness and course form to get the measure of her rivals again. Paul Nicholls looks to have this string “pretty straight fitness wise” as they ran very well yesterday with many winning or placing second. Mont Des Avaloirs is a big danger but lacks the experience of The Bay Birch and that just prove the difference at the end of this race. The Bay Birch won well last season from a mark of 145 and runs today from an 8lb lower mark.

Compare Odds at https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing

 

Racecourse: Newmarket
Time: 16:50
Date: 10/10/2020
Horse: Epic Hero
Current Odds: 10/1 Bet365 4 places else 11/1 generally 3 places, use BOG bookies
Advised Stake & Bet Type: 0.5 Point Each Way
Selection Reasoning

Highest Ground failed to win the Dante when sent off a well backed favourite. If he improves and handles the soft ground, then he should go close, but he hasn’t run in over three months. Instead, I suggest backing Epic Hero representing target trainers Simon and Ed Crisford. We can forgive him his latest run at Sandown and think back to York when he was run down late by Certain Lad at Group 3 level. That York effort was over 1m1f on good to soft ground. His dam ran well on soft ground so I think he can run a big race in these conditions for jockey James Doyle.

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Racecourse: Newmarket
Time: 14:55
Date: 10/10/2020
Horse: Wembley
Current Odds: 11/1 Paddy Power, Betfair SB, William Hill & Bet365
Advised Stake & Bet Type: 0.5 Point Each Way
Selection Reasoning

This looks an above average renewal of the Dewhurst Stakes. The Irish Trainers have travelled over in force providing five of the 14 declared runners. Thunder Moon won the Group 1 National Stakes at the Curragh overcoming a bad bump over a furlong out. He has a good turn of foot and is the correct favourite. However, a horse that caught my eye that day was Wembley ridden by Wayne Lordan. He was settled out the back, following the favourite Lucky Vega. Lucky Vega met all sorts of traffic so in the end Wayne had to pull Wembley out wide and once in the clear he picked up well to finish second. I think he can step forward again today and has been under-rated by the betting market following his latest defeat to Thunder Moon. A cleaner passage and soft ground might just enable this son of Galileo to reverse placings with his Curragh conqueror Thunder Moon. Chindit is interesting but priced up too short due to his lofty reputation.

Compare Odds at https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing

**Next Selections due Date & Time:

Sunday Morning 11th October ~11:00

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