The War of Horse Betting
Table of Contents
- Form Analysis and the importance of understanding the horses and trainers
- Value Betting and the only kind of “win” you should want
- Patience is a virtue, without patience, you’ll lose your hard-earned money
- Specialization: become an expert in your subset of races
- Know Your Enemy, know the bookies and beat them every single time
- Punters Paradox, understanding this will make you profits
- Betting Management and the importance of tracking your bets
- Bankroll Management and emotional strain, keep a cool head
- Trust your judgement and don’t doubt yourself
- Weather Watch, you need to keep everything in mind
Welcome to Nicky Doyle's ebook called "The War of horse betting"
Before we go on to the actual rules, strategies, and ways to make a consistent profit…
… I want to thank you.
Thank you for giving me your time and willingness to read this e-book.
I know that nowadays it’s hard to take some spare time, to sit down and read a book in peace.
With all the distractions in life, there’s always something that needs to be taken care off.
We’re all busy with work, family, our phones, social media, work etc... and it never seems to stop.
If only there was a way to have more time…
I know how valuable time is, so I wouldn’t want to waste it.
In fact, time is so valuable that no amount of money will buy you more.
Therefore, I appreciate it that you’re taking the time to read this e-book.
So, in this book, I wrote down 10 rules that have made me a lot of money and most likely will make you a lot of money too.
I’ll try to give you as much value and insights so at the end of the book you can hopefully say:
“Nicky, I’m glad I sat down and took the time to read everything. I’m confident these rules will help me to make more profit through horse betting.”
But maybe you’re wondering….
Who is Nicky Doyle? And why should I trust you?
Hi, I’m Nicky Doyle, and I’ve been horse betting since I was a little kid.
But don’t worry, I won’t tell you a story about how ‘gifted’ was or anything like that…
… In fact, I was once £30,000 in debt and I felt like the world was against me.
The number of times I lost, the money I have lost and the relationships I’ve potentially ruined because I was blinded by mistakes.
No… I was not even close to being a ‘horse betting wizard’.
Some people have luck on their side, but I don’t think I was one of them.
I had to fall down hundreds of times, lose thousands of pounds, before I started to see patterns and ways to improve my odds.
After years of being in debt, things slowly started to change, I kept winning more and more and I knew I was onto something.
At the moment of writing, I’ve made over £300,000 through horse betting.
I can live off horse betting, provide for my family and never, ever worry again about being in debt.
Some people might be sceptical and ask:
“If you’re really that good, why bother teaching other people how to make money through horse betting?”
It’s because throughout the years of being a part of the war of horse betting, I learned something.
Something that has always been unfair and most likely will always stay unfair.
The bookies are fixated on making money, they don’t care about you, they don’t care about your family, and they’ll do anything in their power to take your hard-earned money.
They’ll put out bad odds on the favourites day after day, year after year…
So they can make sure to take as much as they can. To the bookies, you’re nothing more than just ‘a number’...
Simply put, the bookies have too much power. They’re allowed to close the accounts of winning punters while they laugh and encourage the people who lose, to lose even more…
They take as much money possible from losing punters and yet decide to limit stakes of the small percentage of punters who do win!
The bookies want their bread buttered on both sides.
Don’t even get me started on the number of times they’ve banned me and my clients from betting....
The bookies have become my enemy. And I’ll do everything in my power to pull the odds towards us, the punters.
I’ll do whatever is needed to beat the bookies.
But because stakes are limited, even if I’d win every bet…
… it’s just a drop in the ocean.
They’d just ban me again and keep on with taking money from those who are already losing too much.
But at least with a group of dedicated punters who make it their mission to hit the bookies where it really hurts.... (Their wallets)
… we might be able to at least take a stand and give them a taste of their own medicine.
And I hope, you want to be a part of that.
Again, thank you for taking the time to read this book.
1. Form Analysis and the importance of understanding the horses and trainers
Have you ever wondered how football scouts look for talent?
Well, let me help you out there and tell you a bit about it:
Once in a while they attend football matches on behalf of the clubs to find new talent.
The scout assesses the team and will look for talent, specific strengths and weaknesses of the players, and tries to gather information and find out which players have more potential than others.
Which player has talent, has a positive attitude towards authority, is trainable, and could potentially become one of the top players in the future?
A lot of these players doubt themselves and blame themselves for not being good enough.
Because they think they ‘lack talent’...
But the truth is, talent alone isn’t enough.
It won’t even bring you close to the top 1%.
It’s hard work that’ll bring you there.
So that’s why the scouts are always trying to find out whether the player is willing to put in hard work.
Because when you put in the time and effort, you will reap the rewards.
I want you to have a similar look at runners as talent scouts do.
I want you to check the form of every runner in a race, with no shortcuts.
Because this is the only way to succeed and find the winners.
If you want to last and stay the course, you must dedicate time and work to achieve such a goal.
Watch the latest race replays of runs of a horse to get to know that racehorse better.
And ask yourself the next questions:
- Do they like to lead?
- Did they have a poor draw last time out?
- Did they make a silly mistake over a fence or hurdle, handicap ratings (are they running from a stiffer or easier handicap mark than of late)?
- Is the trainer's horses back in form?
- What is the horse's preferred ground surface on which they have performed best?
- Is the race distance good for this runner?
- How was the previous course form.
Form analysis requires time and effort. If you enjoy horse-racing, then it is enjoyable time spent studying past races of each runner. Consider a race as an unsolved puzzle. The fun is figuring out what is the respective winning chance of each runner.
2. Value Betting and the only kind of “win” you should want
Most people like to “win’’.
They want to win each and every race because it makes them feel good.
It’s about “feeling” as a winner.
I, on the other hand, want to make a profit. That is what “winning’’ is for me.
I don’t care about losing multiple races in a row.
Because “feeling’’ as if I won, isn’t going to help me in life.
It’s not putting bread on the table, and neither will it pay for my children’s school fee.
What I do care about?
I care about making sure that I make a significant profit.
Because at the end of the day, I’m walking away with much more money than the punters who only back favourites.
When I’d ask someone whether they would like to win 6 out of 10 races and lose money or rather win 1 out 10 times and make 100 pounds, you’d be stupid if you’d rather “win” and lose money.
And even though lots of people will answer this question with:
“Of course I’d go for winning once and making a hundred quid!”
They will still happily go back to the bookies and back the favourites…
Instead of looking for value and actually making a profit.
I’ll give you an example:
If you back nothing but 9/1 runners then statistically to break even, you need to back 1 winner from every 10 bets.
If you can beat that by backing 1 winner priced at 9/1 from 7 bets, you are going to make a profit.
In this basic example, the punter has managed to identify horses priced at 9/1 while their true chance of winning should be priced at 7/1. The value is 2 points (9/1 minus 7/1) so over time this punter is guaranteed to win and win handsomely.
It is imperative that following form analysis of a race, you have an opinion for what prices reflect the chance of each horse winning that race.
If the bookies are offering a bigger price than what you believe to be the true winning chance of a runner, then you have identified value in the betting market.
The overpriced runner (e.g., 8/1 instead of 5/1) should be your bet. The most likely winner or favourite is generally under priced (e.g., 2/1 instead of 3/1).
Always look for ways to find value.
Counterintuitively, do not look for the likeliest winner of a race, but rather those runners that are priced too high relative to their chance of winning. Your opinion on the correct prices of the runners, is built through form analysis and experience. Value prices are identified only after thorough form analysis. They are the key golden rules to work on and master.
3. Patience is a virtue, without patience, you’ll lose your hard-earned money
You’ve probably heard this plenty of times, but I need to remind you of this:
Patience is a virtue.
To make consistent profit with horse betting, you need to be patient.
Putting all your money on one horse, is just a gamble.
But making the right selections over hundreds of races with good value, is a strategy that will most certainly make you a profit over the long term.
You need to manage expectations and show patience.
Finding value is what will make you profits over the long haul.
It is the long-term average that counts, so accept that there will be good runs and poor runs along the road to profits.
No one makes it in a day, except for those extremely lucky lotto winners!
As JP McManus would say:
“Patience is a key element of success”
4. Specialization: become an expert in your subset of races
There are a few good reasons why doctors specialize…
One of the reasons is earning more.
Another reason is that you’ll simply get better at one thing and have a higher success rate.
If you’d need heart surgery, you’d most likely prefer someone specialized in heart surgery instead of someone who knows a little about everything.
And those same simple rules apply for horse racing.
Identify your favourite subset of horse races.
There are hundreds of horse races every day around the world. It is impossible to keep up with it all. So, specialize on the racing you enjoy the most.
I prefer to concentrate on the better-quality racing, such as Class 2 handicaps up to Group 1 on the flat turf or Grade 1 level over jumps in the United Kingdom & Ireland.
It’s very much a case of quality over quantity. If you love the all-weather racing, then specialize in those races and specifically a few classes of those races, for example class 4 & 5 races.
Become an expert in your favourite subset of races. Master the form of runners in those races, course characteristics, as well as the trainers and jockeys involved.
5. Know Your Enemy, know the bookies and beat them every single time
It’s no secret that backing favourites will let you ‘win’ more often. Backing favourites will on average deliver a winner 4 out of 10 races, and a lot of people take those odds.
But at the same time, bookmakers know that most people will back the favourites.
So, what will they do to maximize their own profit?
They’ll give you bad odds.
For example, they might give you a 2/1 instead of 3/1.
That is why bookmakers know they can make a tidy percentage from favourite backers by pricing them below their true chance of winning.
Instead, aim to back horses at a value price of 4/1 or above.
You might back fewer winners, but your profits will increase if choosing the right horses following form analysis.
What I do, is to bet each way. Let others throw their money on the favourites while you bag the value bets at bigger prices.
Do not follow the crowd backing the first or second favourite. This is what the bookies want you to do all day, every day!
6. Punters Paradox, understanding this will make you rich
The paradox we as punters must accept...
- “I will back less winners to ensure I make more profit”.
Well, it’s because you are most likely backing horses that are available at a bigger price than their true price of winning. Use form analysis and value betting to identity value betting opportunities.
You need to keep the long-term goal in mind to make profit.
If you understand this paradox, then you understand value betting.
7. Betting Management and the importance of tracking your bets
A lot of punters don’t understand the importance of tracking all their bets.
Most punters convince themselves they are winning when in fact they are losing a significant amount of money over time.
They ‘feel’ like they make more money than they have put in.
But ‘feeling’ as if you’re winning isn’t the goal.
Winning feels good, but you can’t rely on ‘guessing’ whether you’re making a profit.
You have to record all bets placed in a spreadsheet. Use a cumulative profit and loss column to track the success or failure of your betting over time.
There is no hiding or disguising results recorded in your spreadsheet.
You might guess wrong, but numbers won’t lie.
A results' spreadsheet will help identity if your betting is working or not!
Even if you’re paper trading your bets, always record them over a good period of at least three months to identify your betting performance.
Bankroll Management and emotional strain, keep your head cool
8. Bankroll Management and emotional strain, keep your head cool
I can’t stress this enough…
You need to understand bankroll management.
If you neglect your bankroll management, you’re doomed to losing money.
Set aside a certain amount of money to bankroll your betting.
Remember, your betting bankroll is separate to your day to day living expenses. We all endure poor runs, so having a betting bank helps overcome the emotional strain of betting, especially a run of poor results.
For Example, a £1,000 starting bank could be divided by 100 points to give an initial staking plan of £10 per point or unit.
Effectively, you can place 100 bets before you go broke if all were to lose!
This helps us out on the mental side of the game. If we have a poor month and lose 10 points (£100) not a problem as we still have £900 or 90 points left in the betting bank.
Instead of thinking about money, we are thinking in terms of betting bank points when placing our bets. A loss of 10 points is much easier to accept emotionally than a loss of £100, even though they are both the same result in this example!
Add your profits to your betting bank. Then every half year or year if your betting bank has grown, you can increase your stakes while keeping your betting bankroll at 100 points.
It is especially important to be patient and not increase your stakes too quickly. I recommend that the minimum period to allow before adjusting stakes should be 6 months.
Take control of your betting by using a betting bankroll. It will help you work through the losing runs so that you can capitalize on the good runs. The higher the prices you are betting at, then the higher your bankroll should be to survive losing runs.
I use each way betting to help maintain my 100-point betting bank while backing many horses at 10/1 and higher prices.
9. Trust your judgement and don’t doubt yourself
Do not go changing your betting style just because of a poor run.
Accept and know that poor runs will happen, but that the good runs will cover those losses and return a profit over the long term. Keep faith in yourself and your bets to give them a fair chance of success.
Be brave, go against the crowd – If you fancy a horse that is priced up at 33/1 then back it and do not let the big price put you off!
Remember, you will never back a 33/1 winner unless you are prepared to back at that price in the first place! Look at the daily racing results page, and you will see that plenty of outsiders win race upon race every day of the week.
10. Weather Watch, you need to keep everything in mind
Watch the weather like a fisherman about to go out to sea for a few days.
Ground conditions are important to most racehorses. It is only the true champion racehorses that can win by overcoming their least favourite surface.
In the United Kingdom and Ireland, ground conditions vary from heavy in the winter to good to firm in high summer. Once a racehorse has run several times it becomes obvious to trainers and punters which ground a horse performs best on.
Just look at the results and performances as trainers will test their charges on different ground to find their optimum conditions.
There are several meteorological websites that give weather forecasts which you can use. My favourite weather website is https://www.myweather2.com/.
It offers individual racecourse weather forecasts, which include amounts of forecast rain in millimetres.
Ground plays a major role in the performance of racehorses. Figure out what ground conditions are likely on race day by using weather forecasts. Will the likely forecast ground suit all runners in a particular race?
There you have it! All 10 golden rules for successful betting that I’ve been using to make over £300,000. They have turned my betting fortunes since 2008. All ten rules are important, but if I had to pick only two?
Without hesitation, I would advise form analysis & value betting, which are the foundation stones of his betting methodology.
If you work hard on racing form using tools such as watching race replays & understanding handicap ratings, you’ll master rule no. 1 quite quickly.
A “good handle” of the racing form will help you to master spotting value in the betting markets. They are interlinked or co-related so improving one improves the other.
A bit like the old saying “It’s not luck it’s hard work”
Finally, I would like to wish you every success, with lots of luck and hard work on your road to betting success!
P.S. If you’re more interested in having an expert making the selections for you and helping you out making more profit, take a look at my services: https://www.betalchemist.com/join-now/. You won’t regret it.