The stamina-sapping conditions have completely changed my outlook on this years’ 171st renewal of the Randox Health Grand National. Given the arduous, underfoot terrain, the emphasise is very much on stamina and it’s no surprise that the market has acted accordingly.
Whilst I am always looking for a classy, well-handicapped sort, my selection process for this years’ contest mainly centered on finding sound jumpers that were also stamina-laden performers. The ability to get into a nice, early rhythm is always an essential attribute over the National fences, but on today’s heavy ground, it’s even more pivotal. Take recent soft ground National winners, Rule The World (2016) and Pineau De Re (2014), as two prime examples. Neither of them would have been considered classy performers heading into the race, but both jumped immaculately early on and had the necessary stamina reserves to last home the marathon four ‘and a bit’ mile trip. Thanks to their scintillating jumping abilities, they were able to gain lengths, confidence and momentum over their rivals at each fence and as a result, they were perfectly positioned in the latter stages to unleash their ultimate trump card – stamina.
Such considerations have swayed me towards The Dutchman and I Just Know, both of which are strong travellers, even stronger stayers and very proficient in the jumping department. Both like to be ridden close to pace and with so many having question marks over stamina combined with the prevailing ground conditions, most rider’s may well be too conservative early on, in turn, allowing our two to enjoy a relatively easy time up front. Another appealing aspect of their profiles is that they are both well-experienced, battle-hardened performers while also giving every indication that they have more to offer off their respective marks. Both of our selections compete off nice racing weights carrying less than 11st and our weekly readers will be aware that that is almost a must for me when betting in these herculean-like staying handicaps.
In the case of The Dutchman, Colin Tizzard’s charge improved tenfold for a breathing operation earlier this season and as per the Venn Farm trainer, the son of King’s Theatre represents ‘the best chance I’ve ever had of winning the National’. He absolutely sluiced home in the Peter Marsh Chase on his penultimate start where he skated clear of fellow National hopeful, Captain Redbeard, on the run-in to score by thirteen lengths. Following that, he was very well fancied for today’s contest before being abruptly pulled-up in the Grand National Trial. It emerged soon after that he bled through the nose and as the Tizzard’s string had been under a cloud at the time, I am happy to dismiss that run completely. Thankfully, Tizzard’s stable is now in red-hot form as is his rider, Harry Cobden, who teamed up with Tizzard yesterday afternoon to steer Ultragold to a second consecutive success in the Topham. A general 20/1 shot, he’s worthy of each-way support.
A compelling case can also be made for I Just Know. Trained by 2013 winning trainer, Sue Smith, this has been the target ever since he proved his stamina when winning the North Yorkshire National. There, he stayed on dourly over 3m6f on soft ground. Since then, he shaped well over hurdles at Uttoxeter last month and that should have the eight-year-old spot on for today’s test. He’s been well supported throughout the week, but at a general 18/1, I still reckon that there’s a bit of juice in his price.
Aintree 5.15 PM
1/2 Point Each Way I Just Know (18/1 Generally, Look for 6 places, BOG Bookies)
1/2 Point Each Way The Dutchman (20/1 Generally, Look for 6 places, BOG Bookies)
Compare Odds at https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/aintree/17:15/winner
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