A nice, competitive card at Ascot awaits us this afternoon and should prove to be a good appetizer for what promises to be a fascinating week’s racing. The JLT Hurdle is the feature of the day and here, we’ll find out how Nicky Henderson’s Call Me Lord fares on his first attempt over three miles. The five-year-old French bred looked mightily impressive at Sandown when annihilating two well-established staying hurdlers in Lil Rockerfeller and Wholestone. Over eight months have passed since that win and we haven’t seen the Seven Barrows runner since. The lack of a recent run combined with the fact that he has stamina to prove will understandably turn off some punters, but for everyone willing to take him on, there’ll be another person willing to go chips all in!! Should he manage to replicate his Sandown performance, he will surely become the bookie’s favourite for the Stayers Hurdle in March.
As interesting as the JLT Hurdle appears, the value of the day lies with Minella Daddy in the following race, the Garrard Silver Cup Handicap Chase. Peter Bowen’s charge goes well around the Berkshire track and surely merits support at 16/1. From five visits, he has gained a win and two seconds. As is often the case, recency bias among the majority of punters creates value for the rest of us and for me, this is a classic example. He bombed out here in November when sent off favourite. On that occasion, he never once looked like getting involved and favourite backers knew their fate from an early stage. To be honest, I was astonished that he started favourite that day as he’s generally not the type that goes well fresh. This was his seasonal comeback and previous campaigns tell us that he has benefitted significantly for it. As a consequence, I am confident that he can shrug off that poor performance and give a much better account of himself this afternoon. Everything appears to be in his favour for him to do so. His current rating of 138 is good considering that he finished runner up in this two years ago off a 6lb higher mark. That leaves him with a lovely low weight of 10-5 and having the trainer’s son, Sean, on board is also a massive plus. Unlike a few of these, the undercut conditions won’t be too much of an inconvenience for this Flemensfirth gelding and relative to his winning chances, 16/1 is simply too good to ignore. A few firms are offering four places too and when you consider that just twelve go to post, I’d be extremely hopeful that we’d manage to get some sort of return.
Ascot 3.00 PM
1/2 Point Each Way Minella Daddy
(16/1 Paddy Power, Betvictor & Betfair Sportsbook all paying 4 places, use BOG bookies)
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Enjoy Your Saturday and Best of Luck,
Nicky
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