English Leger – Final Classic For Export
I have been guilty of straying from my original selections a few times this week to my cost. The time old adage of “never change your mind” or “stick to your guns” came back to haunt me big time.
I am about to do the same in the English St Leger this Saturday. Since backing the unlucky Excess Knowledge at Glorious Goodwood where he endured a terrible trip and still just failed to win by a head He has been my “Leger Horse”. However, I have sat on my hands watching as the 8/1 disappeared along with the 7’s and 5’s until now he is best priced 7/2 favourite!
Yes I certainly have missed my price there and at 7/2 on good/soft ground I am prepared to abandon Excess Knowledge in favour of the Aidan O’Brien Foundry. Jockey Bookings suggest he is second string with Ryan Moore jocked up but that is a plus for me. Foundry ran a cracker on his 2nd start at York only finding Telescope over a length too good.
Foundry has huge scope for improvement and has won on soft ground already. 6/1 is a fair price as I expect that to shorten and especially with David Wachman not sure to run Galileo Rock currently priced at 4/1. Hopefully, Foundry can prove that sometimes it is wise to change your mind!
Eye Catchers from the Last Weeks Racing
Pique Sous – Trainer Willie Mullins – Jockey Billy Lee
Pique sous has a revised flat rating of 98 having been raised 10lbs by the handicapper for his easy win at Leopardstown on Irish Champion Stakes Day. He won the 1m6f final race very easily quickening clear having been kept up with the pace throughout the race. The key to this dual purpose horse is good or better ground. He cannot handle ground with soft in the description in the top races. His past record reads very good having placed 3rd in a Cheltenham Bumper and winning a Grade 2 hurdle at Fairy house’s Easter Festival. Due to the need to have safe ground (soft side of good) at the big festivals like Cheltenham, Aintree & Punchestown Pique Sous is unlikely to get the chance to reach his full potential as the major Jumps Festivals. This being so if the staying flat Cup races must enter calculations. He would be sure to get his favoured ground and with another few pounds improvement who knows he might even win an Ascot Gold Cup.
Australia – Trainer Aidan O’Brien – Jockey Joseph O’Brien
Coolmore have a quality bunch of two year olds this season with Australia near the top of the pecking order. This Colt is sired by Galileo and out of Star Mare Quija Board, both top Group 1 performers on the track. It looks like Australia is going to live up to expectations as he brushed aside Dermot Welds’ Free Eagle with a devastating turn of foot to win by an eased down 6 lengths. The step up of a furlong to the mile trip suited and he is a live contender for the classics next season. The bookies already have him priced up as 6/1 favourite for the Epsom Derby but that is getting ahead of ourselves. Aidan O’Brien was his usual understated self when calling him an “exciting horse” after this demolition job. Aidan also mentioned “”I don’t want to be blowing up the horse but he was always doing things no two-year-old has ever done before.”
Que Pasa – Trainer David Harry Kelly – Jockey Barry Geraghty
Que Pasa is a mare to follow next time out with connections targeting a Grade 3 Novice either at Down Royal or Tipperary over the coming weeks. Following her next run Trainer David Kelly says her target will be Cheltenham next March with Barry Geraghty impressed by her win at Galway. In that race she landed on all fours over the second last losing a couple of lengths but picked up the leaders easily showing a nice turn of foot from the last to win cosily. She beat the well regarded Indevan and in form Giants Quest so this is good form. The way she travelled up the hill at Galway bodes well for Cheltenham next March.
Best of Luck,
Nicky