Cesarewitch – A Puzzle to Beat all Puzzles!
The Cesarewitch run at Newmarket with 34 runners declared is a handicap puzzle to savour. Run over 2 miles 2 furlongs it is a marathon race with the emphasis on stamina with a finishing kick required. It is a great race to take on the favourite as 8 of the last 10 winners started 10/1 or greater.
The last two years have seen winners priced at 66/1 and 25/1 so if you fancy a big priced horse go for it! Three year old’s have run well but stand with just one winner from the last 10 years and are not represented at all this year. Horses tend to develop stamina as they age similar to our good selves.
Like the Cambridgeshire which had over 30 runners some bookmakers are offering 5 places for each way punters. You should not need to be asked twice to snap that offer up “pronto” with Bet365, Betvictor, Paddypower, Stanjames, Boylesports, Ladbrokes, Totesport & Betfred all offering the extra place.
At first look I managed to downsize the maximum 34 runner field to 16 runners! Then, being a value hunter especially in these big field handicaps I scratched Smoky Hill, Domination, Tiger Cliff, Pallasator, Oriental Fox & Lieutenant Miller as they are priced lower than what I consider good value due to factors such as their Jockeys, Trainers, Popularity etc. Of course they can go and win but most are 12/1 or lower!
We are down to the last 10 but that needs to be halved before we can seriously work on all the minute form details. There is some rain due possibly up to 8-10 mm before Saturday afternoon and that will be against Sohar & Seaside Sizzler who both like fast ground. Chiberta King despite doing us a favour at Royal Ascot is scratched due to weight despite Oisin Murphy’s 5lb claim and the fact that he can run very free and have nothing left for the finish in true run races.
Cosimo De Medici is scratched as Hughie Morrison mentioned after a recent win that he thought he would not get into this race so it surely has not been his target. Big Easy is the final horse to be eliminated at this stage as he has no reliable form to assess on the flat and might lack the necessary finishing speed for a race like this.
So there we go with a quick synopsis of how I narrowed down this monstrous field to 5 picks. The final five are Albert Bridge, Moidore, Clowance Estate, Platinum & Brockwell. They are all priced at 16/1 plus so are great each way bets. I recommend picking two horses and betting them each way with one of the bookies offering 5 places.
Which two to back is the last piece of the jigsaw? Well those two will be emailed out to members of the Bet Alchemist service this evening and you can find out which two we backed by checking our results page on Saturday Night!
Eye Catchers for Weekend ending 6th October
Hot Streak – Trainer Kevin Ryan – Jockey Jamie Spencer
He ran away with a Group 3 at Ascot last Saturday beating a Richard Hannon trained favourite by 5 lengths! It takes a very good horse to win a Group race by 5 lengths over the minimum distance of 5 furlongs and Hot Streak did just that. Trainer Kevin Ryan said it all in his comments after the race “We´ll leave him in the Middle Park as he´s a horse you could back up. I´m not sure the ground is important. He´s just a very, very good horse.”
Eton Rifles – Trainer Stuart Williams – Jockey Graham Gibbons
Off the track for almost a year Eton Rifles was beaten just a short head by Steps at Ascot last weekend. Steps has been running very well all summer so Eton Rifles ran a huge race on his seasonal debut. Surely he will improve for the race but more important to him might be a step back up in trip to 6 furlongs. Over that distance six of his eight wins were recorded. He goes on all ground bar heavy so any rain will not inconvenience him as much as others.
Tropics – Trainer Dean Ivory – Jockey Robert Winston
Another massively improved performance from Tropics winning the Group 3 Bengough Stakes easily at Ascot last Saturday. He has won five competitive races this year along with finishing second in another out of nine starts. There is little doubt the way he travelled last Saturday that he can be competitive at Group 1 level next season. The reason I mention next season is his trainer hinted that he is finished for this year but will be back at Ascot for the Royal meeting in 2014. It’s amazing how some horses keep improving over a full season. Tropics has improved from a rating of 84 to his new rating of 116! A rise of 32lbs deserves a massive pat on the back to Dean Ivory. Well done sir.
Rubi Light – Trainer Robbie Hennessy – Jockey Barry Geraghty
Following a very disappointing 2012/2013 season Rubi Light looks back to his best following a very good seasonal debut at Gowran finishing one and a half lengths behind Sizing Europe. I have always been a big fan of this horse as he is as good a jumper as you will see over fences. He is very classy but at the very top grade needs soft ground or worse to dampen the superior speed of his rivals. His trainer was very confident that he had him back on song and so it proved although the ground turned up too fast on the day. November’s Clonmel Oil Chase is his next target and if the ground is soft or worse he will take all the beating.
Top Notch Tonto – Trainer Brian Ellison – Jockey Dale Swift
All the talk had been that Top Notch Tonto needed soft ground to be seen at his best following his impressive win a few weeks at Haydock over a mile in a Group 3. Well he put that theory to bed running another huge race to beat Caspar Netscher by over a length as well as carrying 3lbs extra on good/firm ground at Redcar over 7 furlongs! Now, the good/firm that you see recorded for this race is a little wide of the mark. There is little doubt to anyone who watches the race that the rain had got in and there was little firm to be had. Brian Ellison said as much after the race “This proves that he doesn´t need soft ground; he just needs to get his toe in. We´ll probably give him a holiday now. He could be a Group 2 horse next year”
All the best,
Nicky