Bet Alchemist Weekly Blog – 5th July 2015

Race Reports

Lady Tiana 1.0 Point Win

Lady Tiana had caught the eye when only getting a run too late when 3rd behind Miss Marjurie leading into this race. Thankfully, Graham Lee managed to get her out in time and she reversed placings with Miss Marjurie winning comfortably in the end. Lady Tiana travels really well in her races and can quicken at the business end. Graham Lee seems to always take a position along the rail at Haydock which can be dangerous when trying to get a run. In this case Lady Tiana trainer Lucy Wadham mentioned that Lady Tiana needs to be covered up and delivered late with Graham Lee riding a very brave race. Its trainer comments like that above which help punters change a view and appreciate how good some jockeys are when riding to trainer instructions. Lady Tiana needs cut in the ground and is to have a break with the plan to come “back for the Group 1 race for fillies on Champions day at Ascot in October with maybe one run before

Ifwecan 1.0 Point Each Way

He broke well but was sensibly settled just behind Jarob Black with Frankie Dettori determined to hold the lead. Ifwecan travelled nicely in behind the leader and looked to be in the perfect position if good enough as they approached the two furlong market. However, he quickly came under pressure and found little drifting back through the field. He is much better than this and may have been sulking not getting his own way up front. The handicapper must surely drop him a couple of pounds following this run which could make Ifwecan interesting if drawn well in a Glorious Goodwood handicap.

Spark Plug 1.0 Point Each Way

The draw was always going to play a big part for Spark Plug and I was surprised to see Ryan Moore give away all the advantage of his nice draw beside the pace horses. Surely, he could have settled Spark Plug more mid division rather than right out the back. He finished full of running having been denied a run up the rail and up the middle of the course. The horse looked out for a confidence boosting ride having taken a tumble when clipping heels previously. Spark Plug is a very good horse and better than a handicapper. He remains of interest in middle distance valuable handicaps.

John Reel 0.5 Point Each Way

John Reel was available at a big price on his Chester Cup form despite the drop in trip looking sure to test his speed. It was anyone’s guess how much rain was going to fall or how sticky and dead the ground would be and that is why he was advised as a bet with stamina not an issue. The jockeys mentioned that it rode dead down the back and not so dead up the straight. Surprisingly, John Reel raced freely during the early part of the race taking a keen hold despite having horses in front of him. He plugged on from two furlongs out but was never really involved. He holds an entry for the Ebor Handicap over a more suitable distance but honestly is handicapped too high presently.

Eye of The Storm 0.5 Point Each Way

An excellent debut for new trainer Amanda Perret at Goodwood when third beaten just a length by Ayrad highlighted the fact Eye Of The Storm was in rude health. The step up in trip looked sure to suit and he duly went and won at Sandown although not as easily as expected having travelled really well for most of the race. Jockey Pat Dobbs comments explain why he didn’t pull clear to win more easily “Eye Of The Storm pulls up a bit in front and travelled a bit too well, as he never really settled. He´s got a good turn of foot though, and plenty of class”. Eye of the Storm has some very good form against Group level horses from his 3 & 4 year old campaigns when trained by Aidan O’Brien. He remains of interest and holds an entry for the Goodwood Cup over a less testing 2 miles at the end of this Month.

Betalchemist News

Two good winners in Lady Tiana & Eye of the Storm helped ensure Full Bet Alchemist Members enjoyed a winning Saturday last week. The Big Saturday Race where we bet usually at 1 Point Each Way on two selections has not had a winner since Monsieur Joe at the end of May.

This is frustrating of course but fully expected and understandable considering we are betting in very competitive races with large number of runners and usually at big prices. The key point is that patience is required and expect the strike rate to be low but the profits to make it all worthwhile. A couple of big price winners is all that is required over the course of a full year to ensure healthy profits.

Bunbury Cup & July Cup

Saturday sees the last day of the Newmarket July meeting and the best action of the 3 day meeting. The Bunbury Cup is a race that has been very kind to BA members having had the 2013 & 2014 winners Field of Dreams & Heavens Guest onside. I’ll be going all out spending a few hours studying the race trying to make it a hat trick of Bunbury Cup winners this weekend.

Less we forget the Darley July Cup follows the Bunbury Cup and what a cracking race it looks like being once more this year. Aussie sprinter Brazen Beau showed at Royal Ascot when second to Undrafted in the Diamond Jubilee Stakes that he is a seriously fast horse and under different riding tactics can improve on that display at Newmarket.

Crack three year old Muhaarar heads the home team and could not have been more impressive winning a hotly contested Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot easily. An allowance of 6lbs from his elders including 3 year old Brazen Beau (Australian horses birthday is September 1st unlike January 1st in UK) is a big advantage for the 121 rated Muhaarar.

Both Muhaarar and Brazen Beau are best priced at 9/4 with the rest all in double figures. It’s a lop sided betting market and it will be surprising if one of the bigger priced runners does not make the top two work very hard for victory. The trick is finding the right double digit horse to side with against the jollies!

 

That’s all for now,

Nicky