Bet Alchemist Weekly Blog – 28th June 2015

Race Reports

Baraweez 0.5 Point Each Way

Baraweez is proving a great friend of the bookies this season having been well backed on his past four starts but failing to get his head in front or even placing! Once again he was very well backed but was unable to quicken over the final furlong running respectably to finish fifth. It’s becoming clear that Baraweez might be better running over a stiff 7 furlongs around a bend like when winning at Galway and Leopardstown last year. His rating of 98 is just 2lbs higher than when he won a valuable handicap at Leopardstown on Champions Weekend and he might be worth persisting with if he travels to the Galway festival later this Month.

Montefeltro 1.0 Point Each Way

The Northumberland Plate is always a very hard won race and trainer Brian Ellison failed to get a place with four runners this year! Montefeltro was held up but failed to show his turn of foot up the straight unable to quicken like he has in the past. It was a disappointing run and begs the question does he retain the ability he showed before injury when wining the Irish Cesarewitch? For now we will just sit and watch until he shows better form on the track.

Gabrials Star 1.0 Point Each Way

Gabrials Star ran well considering he raced quite freely in the early part of the race. He was running on empty over the final furlong and had nothing left to quicken and get involved. A drop in trip back to 1m6f or less might help him settle better as he travels so well in his races. He remains of interest and is not badly handicapped.

Sharaasa 0.5 Point Each Way

Sharaasa arrived to this race off an excellent run at Cork looking sure to appreciate the step up in trip. She was very well backed going off at an SP of 7/1 but ran no sort of race dropping out the back. The Turf Club Veterinary Officer examined Sharaasa, at the request of trainer, Kevin Prendergast, and reported the animal lame on his near fore post race.

Trinity Force 0.5 Point Each Way

Trinity Force was settled out the back in this strongly run race and could never get competitive. This was his second try over 1 mile having placed second at Gowran Park in May 2014. In a truly run race and with Ger Lyons saying he would be a “stakes level” horse but for having a breathing operation it’s fair to say the trip was too much for him. He ran his worst racing post rating in six starts here but can bounce back over 6/7 furlongs on summer ground. A track with a bend or turn would suit better that a big galloping track to enable him fill up his lungs.

Highland Reel 0.5 Point Each Way

Highland Reel sweated up badly beforehand as the occasion seemed to get the better of him. As a result he did well to see out the trip so well having been settled out the back and never looking like getting involved up front. The Epsom Derby form held up well here as Jack Hobbs won well from Storm The Stars. Before this race the only horse that had a chance of beating Jack Hobbs was Highland Reel upping in trip and coming off a good run when second in the French Derby. He as the right bet but unfortunately just blew his chance in the preliminaries. Aidan O’Brien will work his magic on Highland Reel and he can do us a favour later this summer at a good price.

Brooch 0.5 Point Each Way

She struggled to quicken with the main protagonists at the business end of the race finding life difficult on her first run at Group 1 level. This race was her first defeat in five starts and there is no doubt that she requires softer ground to be competitive at Group 1 level. An autumn campaign will be the plan going forward although it will not be easy against a better than average crop of 3 year old middle distance fillies.

Zalty 0.5 Point Each Way

Zalty was well drawn high in stall 18 and arrived here fresh and well following his seasonal debut. He broke well from the stalls but was too far back and never able to get competitive over this minimum trip. David Marnane will surely step him back up to 6 furlongs and he remains a well handicapped horse. He holds an entry for the Stewards Cup at Glorious Goodwood but will need to win a race before then to get above a rating of 95 to make the cut in that valuable 6 furlong race.

Desert Law 0.5 Point Each Way

Desert Law was well drawn like the eventual winner and second and ran another big race just losing second place on the line. He broke and travelled well just behind the winner Foxy Forever but lacked the speed to reel in that horse and was all out come the line. Desert Law looks to have shown his full hand to the handicapper and while running well will most likely find one or two better handicapped horses too good for him until dropping back down the handicap a few pounds.

Betalchemist News

The key thing I took from last weekend’s racing was the form displayed by the 3 year old fillies against their elders in the Pretty Polly stakes. Both Diamondandrubies and Legatissimo have been busy this season especially Legatissimo who ran twice before winning the 1000 guineas at Newmarket and then just failing to win the Epsom Oaks.

3 Year Old Fillies Crop of 2015

In the Group 1 Pretty Polly stakes Seamie Heffernan had Diamondandrubies up front out of trouble (almost flattened when 4th Epsom Oaks) and she just held off the slightly unlucky fast finishing Legatissimo by a short head with Ribbons a further neck back in third.

Ribbons fared best of the elder fillies in this race and was the only filly capable of quickening along with Legatissimo out of the pack to chase down Diamondandrubies.

The key point is that the mile and middle distance three year old form is proving very good in 2015. Fillies like Lucida, Legatissimo, Ervedya, Found, Qualify, Lady of Dubai, Diamondandrubies, Jack Naylor, Together Forever, Star of Seville etc. all have won or run to Group 1 winning level!

The owners that have kept their fillies in training as four year olds and older in the hope of bagging valuable black type for breeding purposes will be left scratching their heads. It’s the nature of the business where luck and timing do play a big part each year!

 

That’s all for this week,

Nicky